The other election - Conclave 2025

What the cardinals will see when looking heavenward for inspiration

In a year of elections, the biggest one - most certainly if you are a Catholic, although the whole world seems to be watching and awaiting the outcome - commences on 7 May. It is, of course, the Papal Conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on Easter Monday. The date for the commencement of the Conclave was chosen to allow a respectful nine days mourning from Francis' death.

While it is possible for white smoke to emerge from the Sistine Chapel on 7 May to signal the election of a new pope, that is not a given. In modern times conclaves have been known to last several days. And, historically some have occurred over weeks and even months. The longest in history occured over 33 months before Gregory X was elected in September 1271! And that election was possibly only resolved because the electors were locked in a room by the people of Viterbo in Italy, where the election was taking place, and only fed bread and water to hurry their decision.

We can expect the soon to start Conclave to go a little more smoothly than that. Hopefully.

But what is the process and who are the leading candidates, the "cardinale papabile" as they are called in Italian - "pope-able cardinals". And what are Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump up to in the lead up to the Conclave?

First what can we learn from Hollywood?

The film Conclave, which was released in cinemas last year, seems to have foreshadowed a conclave that occurs after the death of a progressive pope. Since Francis' death, the film has, according to media reports, seen an increase of more than 280 percent in viewings on streaming platforms. But how well does the film prepare viewers for the upcoming Conclave?

(Readers beware: there are spoilers in this article - if you want to see the film, see it first then come back to read the rest of this article.)

My first piece of advice is to take the film's ending with a large pinch of salt. The film's conclusion was more to satsify Hollywood's political agenda than to portray the real operation of a conclave or to present an accurate perspective on Catholic teachings.

Secondly, the movie is generally so bad it is surprising it won several film awards. Indeed, numerous film and religious critics - Catholic and non-Catholic alike - have said, the plot was too simplistic and the characters too steriotyped to be taken seriously. Various cardinals are presented plotting the election of their own candidate or that of a factional leader they support. Only two factions are presented - hardline doctrinal conservatives and their polar opposite progressivist rivals. And of course, the hardline conservative candidates are especially flawed characters, guilty of sexual misconduct or simony, while the progressives seem like saints forced to play a diabolical political game so they can ensure the Church continues on a progressivist path. Honestly, the script and characterisation of the key protagonists could have been developed by a freshman theatre class or an AI program.

However, you can take the following from the movie as true:

• The papal ring is removed from a pope's hand after his passing and destroyed. This is a tradition that dates back to when the Pescatory Ring (or the Fisherman's Ring) was used by popes to seal their private correspondence. The ring was destroyed upon a pope's death to ensure no forgeries could be made in the deceased pope's name, especially during the period before the election of a new pope. Indeed, in the middle ages, there were instances where various popes' rings had been stolen for whatever nefarious purposes. The importance of the Pescatory Ring can be seen in the case of Pope Pius VII destorying his own ring when Napoleon had him kidnapped to France in the 19th Century. Today the destruction of the Fisherman's Ring is symbolic to honour tradition.

• Yes, the cardinals are sequestered in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican and kept from contact with the outside world so that their voting is not affected by temporal matters and events. Even the internet is blocked in this age of information and fake news. I guess the cardinals just can't scroll their socials during the Conclave. Maybe that will force a fast decision so they can get back to their Insta accounts.

• Further, secrecy is paramount. The cardinal electors are not allowed to converse with anyone outside the conclave or discuss any of the proceedings with outsiders under pain of automatic excommunication. Any outsider listening in on the discussions is similarly subject to automatic excommunication.

• To this end of secrecy, the Sistine Chapel, and presumably the apartments where the voting cardinals are lodged during the conclave, are swept for bugs (not spiders, but listening devices).

• Cardinals are not allowed to vote for themselves. Historically, cardinals had to write the name of who they were voting for on their ballot paper and their own name on another part of the ballot that was then sealed to maintain the secrecy of the ballot. If the winning cardinal had a bare minimum of votes, the seals would be broken to see if the successful winner had voted for himself, and, if that was the case the cheat would be disqualified.

• The ballots are burned after each vote. A chemical is used to produce black smoke if a pope has not yet been found. Another chemical is used to produce white smoke if the conclave has elected a new pope. (Since 2005 the bells of St Peter's Basillica ring to also indicate the election of a new pope.)

• Generally, the process presented in the film, including the Latin prayer (or oath) made by the cardinals before casting their votes, is accurate.

Intrigue in the Vatican - A Case of Life Imitating Art or Vice Versa?

In what appeared to be a case of life imitating art, disgraced Cardinal Giovanni Angelo Becciu, was forced to announce on 29 April that he would not participate in the conclave to elect the next pope "for the good of the Church". According to media reports, the Vatican's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, had presented Becciu with a letter signed by Pope Francis stating that Becciu was not eligible to attend the Papal Conclave. While this seems to parallel the subplot of Conclave where documents hidden in the deceased pope's room are discovered and show Cardinal Tremblay was guilty of simony as he had been bribing other cardinals to vote for him, it is really more a case of Hollywood taking liberty to spice up the truth. In fact, Becciu had been found guilty by a Vatican court in 2023 of numerous financial crimes, including fraud, embezzelment and money laundering. Although Becciu is still in the process of appealing the the guilty verdict, he had intended to vote in the upcoming conclave until Parolin took him aside to show him the letter by Pope Francis that clarified Becciu's standing.

The French Connection and US Buffoonery

In further intrigue in the lead up to the Papal Conclave, Italian media have asked whether French President Emmanuel Macron might be trying to play pope-maker just as Europe's kings had done throughout the middle ages. Indeed, the conclave's intricate processes and secrecy evolved precisely to keep temporal political leaders from interferring in the papal election.

What had Macron done to attract the attention of the Italian media?

He held a meeting at the French embassy in Rome with four French cardinals who will be participating in this week's conclave, two of which are considered front runners for the papacy (see below on the papabiles). The story had been fueled by Macron dining with Andrea Riccardi, the Italian founder of the Community of Sant'Egidio, an international Catholic organisation committed to social work and peace, prior to his meeting with the French cardinals. Riccardi has denied any conspiracy between the two to elect a French pope, saying "we ate fettucini not escargot."

The Macron story has been overshadowed in recent days by US President Donald Trump's social media post of an AI-generated image of himself dressed in papal regalia. If that wasn't bad enough, the White House re-posted the image on its official X account. If the purpose was to prove that the US is now run by a clown car full of crass idiots, well done Washington. Only a genius like Trump could have thought this was fitting for the president of the world's most powerful country.

The only question left to answer is who are the papabile?

Based on media commentary and bookmaker odds (yes they are taking bets if you are so inclined), here's a list of the leading candidates in the Papal Conclave (in no particular order):

1. Peter Erdo (Hungarian) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, he has served as the Archbishop of Budapest and Primate of Hungary since then. He was also the president of the European Council of Bishops' Conferences from 2006 to 2016. He is considered a conservative.

2. Pietro Parolin (Italian) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2014, he has served as Secretary of State of the Vatican since 2013. He has been in the Holy See's diplomatic corp for more than 30 years, including diplomatic postings to Nigeria, Mexico and Venezuela. Considered a moderate within the Curia, he is noted for his criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza, and his role in improving the Vatican's relations with Beijing.

3. Luis Antonio Tagle (Fillipino) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2022, he is currently the Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples. He is considered a progressive who is aligned with Pope Francis' reformist vision for the Church. If elected, he would be the world's first East Asian pope.

4. Matteo Zuppi (Italian) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019, is considered a leading progressive faithful to Francis' vision for the modernisation of the Church. He has served as the president of Italy's Bishops Conference. Pope Francis also appointed him his special envoy on peace in the Ukraine-Russian war. He was also a leading negotiator in the Sino-Vatican Agreement of 2018 that allowed the pope veto rights over bishops appointed by Beijing. He is known for his anti-populist and anti-nationalist sentiments and pro-immigration views that have often brought him into conflict with political figures on Italy's right.

5. Marc Ouellet (Candian) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, has served in numerous roles including Archibishop of Quebec and Primate of Canada from 2003 to 2010, and prefect of the Dicastery of Bishops (which oversees the selection of new bishops), and as president of the Pontifical Commission on Latin America. Prior to his rise in the Vatican he was a highly regarded theologian and seminary teacher. Although largely considered a conservative, he has favoured the involvement of more women in the formation of priests and in the selection process of priests in response to the Church's sexual abuse crisis.

6. Jean-Marc Aveline - Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2022, he is considered a progressive for his views on immigration and inter-faith dialogue. He has served as Archibishop of Marseilles since 2019. He was one of the four French cardinals to meet with Emmanuel Macron last week in Rome, and is close to the Community of Sant'Egidio.

7. Francois-Xavier Bustillo - Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is considered a moderate. Although Spanish-born, he has spent much of his priestly life in France working with vulnerable people and youths. He was also amongst the French cardinals to meet with President Macron last week.

8. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghanaian) - Appointed a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, he is highly regarded for his work on social justice and environmental issues. He was the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace from 2009 to 2017 and the inaugural prefect of the Dicastery for the Promotion of Integral Human Development from 2017 to 2021. Turkson maybe the wild card in the Conclave. He is know for his conservative positions on matters of Church doctrine but is considered a progressive on temporal matters such as the environment, social justice, and immigration.

   
   

With 110 of the 133 eligible voting cardinals (those aged under 80) having been appointed by Pope Francis, there is speculation that a progressive will most likely emerge from the Conclave as pope. But, before anyone jumps to the conclusion that Francis was stacking the deck (or branch stacking), the simple fact is that all popes tend to appoint cardinals that are more aligned with their own vision for the future of the Church. Nor is that a guarantee of how a papal election might turn out. Given the secrecy around the discussions inside the Sistine Chapel and voting in the Conclave, even the bookmakers are flying blind on this one. We'll just have to wait and see who is chosen in a process that is simulatenously highly complex, steeped in tradition and deeply spiritual.

Rather than getting drawn into trite arguments about who each each of us favours (given we have no say in the outcome), good Catholics and fellow travellers might like to pray for the Holy Spirit's guidance at the Conclave.

One certainty is that Donald Trump is a long-shot.