Federal Election 2025 - Seats to watch

Democracy tastes best served hot

As the Australian Federal Election approaches – we’re just five days away from it – here’s my promised blog article on which seats to watch on election night, if you’re also a politics tragic without anything else to do this Saturday evening (3 May).

State of Play

For any party to form government in Australia, it must win a majority of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives (or the lower house) of the Australian Parliament. In the last federal election in 2022, Labor won government by winning 77 of these lower house seats. The Liberal and National Coalition parties won 58 seats, with the remaining 16 seats going to minor parties and independents.

If Labor were to lose just two seats on Saturday we would have a “hung parliament”, which means it would be forced to secure support from the minor parties and independents (known as crossbenchers) to form government. This has happened on only two previous occasions. The first time in 1940, Robert Menzies had to secure the support of two crossbenchers to govern the country (it should be noted he lost their support in 1941 when they switched their support to the Labor Party, which then formed the Government). A second hung parliament occurred following the 2010 election when Labor, led by Julia Gillard, secured the support of six independents and Green Party members to form Government.

For the Liberal-National Coalition to win outright government it needs to hold its current 58 seats and pick up at least 18 more seats on Saturday.

So; which seats are worth watching if you want to track the election on Saturday night?

The Bellwethers

Let’s start with the “bellwethers” – these are seats that usually (though not always) indicate if there is a national trend or swing of the political pendulum underway. The bellwethers usually yield a winner from the same party that wins the national election. These seats are Robertson and Lindsay in NSW, and Braddon in Tasmania. Robertson and Lindsay are both held by Labor on a margin of just 1.1 percent. They are both being hotly contested

Braddon is a bit more of an outlier in this election. Although it has been a marginal seat that has historically helped to predict the outcome of federal elections, it became a safe-ish seat for the Liberal Party despite the Liberals losing government at the 2022 election. The margin is 4.9 percent. An increase in the Liberal vote here could be indicative of a national trend towards the Coalition. Equally, a swing back towards Labor, even if the Liberals manage to retain the seat, could be an indication of Labor retaining government.

Another former bellwether worth watching is the seat of Eden-Monaro. Political analysts used to say “as Eden-Monaro goes, so goes the nation”, but that trend was bucked when Labor took the seat from the then incumbent Coalition Government at the 2016 election. Labor held it again at the following election (2019) which saw the Morrison Government returned to office against all odds after following "a narrow path to victory" strategy that paid off. And Labor has held Eden-Monaro since then with the current member, Kristy McBain, increasing her margin to eight percent – the highest margin either party has held the seat by since 1934. A significant swing back to the right in Eden-Monaro could be indicative of a national trend.  

Of course, these four seats alone aren’t enough to win it for the Coalition. The question then is, which other seats are in play on Saturday night.

Other seats to watch

Apart from the above bellwethers, keep an eye on these seats if you’re keen to get a sense of which way the election might swing:

Seat (and State)	Incumbent Party	Margin (%)
Deakin (VIC)	Liberal	0.02
Bennelong (NSW)	Labor	0.04
Gilmore (NSW)	Labor	0.17
Brisbane (QLD)	Labor	1.6
Bass (TAS)	Liberal	0.4
Chisholm (VIC)	Labor	0.5
Macnamara (VIC)	Labor	2.0
Boothby (SA)	Labor	3.0
Ryan (QLD)	Liberal-National	1.9
Longman (QLD)	Labor	3.3
Higgins (VIC)	Labor	2.6
Wentworth (NSW)	Teal	1.3
Kooyong (VIC)	Teal	1.4
Curtin (WA)	Teal	2.9
Goldstein (VIC)	Teal	1.8
Mayo (SA)	Centre Alliance	3.1
Indi (VIC)	Independent	2.7

 Where to watch the election?

While the election is broadcast on many TV channels across the country, I always tune in to the ABC's coverage. The ABC's Antony Green has covered just about every state and federal election in Australia since 1991, as well as elections in some other countries. Most political pundits look to Green as he has successfully called many state and federal elections ahead of the official counters at the Australian Electoral Commission during his more than 30 year career. To put it in simple political language, "an election ain't over till Green has called it."

Sadly this will be Green's last election as he announced earlier this year he would retire after covering this federal election. His will be a hard act to follow for whoever takes over as the ABC's chief psephologist.

My Only Prediction

I’m going to avoid the temptation to make a prediction regarding any of the above seats let alone for the outcome of the national vote. As the Danish Noble Prize physicist, Niels  Bohr, is renowned to have said, “Never make predictions, especially about the future.”

Indeed, my only prediction is that I’ll be enjoying a democracy sausage on Saturday. Maybe two if I’m feeling especially democratic. And if you're looking for a polling booth near you with democracy sausages or for one offering the best democracy sausages, log onto democracysausage.org.

Happy voting and happy eating!